You have no dought heard, read and been mislead by different forecasters and futurist, proclaiming all sorts of doomsday predictions.
Let me tell you this. NO ONE CAN TELL THE FUTURE. There is simply no sound scientific body that can help us forecast long term events.
Here’s some examples:
Did you know that weather forecasting is only sound for the first 48 hours (’bout 70 %) and then after that falls to a 38% probability of correct forecasting? This means that you have a stronger probability of being correct by flipping a coin (50%). Indeed , naive forecasting saying that tomorrow will probably be like today has a higher likelihood of being correct that any stochastic, adaptive, predictive model blah blah blah.
Did you know that economists failed to predict most major depressions, recessions and upswings in the economiy including black monday and the quick recovery? Regardless if they use Keynes or neoclassical models, there still usually off by a long shot.
and which of these great futurists predicted the fall of the berlin wall, the colapse of the Soviet Union etc… etc..
And I don’t wanna talk about record misses in the stock market (if you play the stock market, play long term quality, not short term speculation unless of course you have illegal inside information which is the same as fixing the market).
Why is it that futurists and all these other mean ass forecasting dudes and dudesses always “sell” there information rather than using it to make themselves rich??
One of the main problems that humans face when trying to predict is that they are blinded by the current status of the world and use this as a model to linear project what will happen in the future. They also incorrectly assume that history repeats itself (its much easier to believe this than to face the general uncertainty that anything goes, anything can happen and that we live in a very uncertain world).
BEWARE OF PROPHETS PREACHING FALSE PROPHECIES AND STRANGE GODS.
This also extends to long term strategic planning of course as Mintzberg has correctly stipulated.
This does not mean that one shouldn’t be prudent and scenario plan for just in case events. Just in case scenario planning means that “I don’t know what’s gonna happen, but if this does happen (or something close to it) i’ll be prepared).
So yes, I’ll have earthquake insurance in case an earthquake does occur. If it doesn’t good. If it does then I’m covered up to a certain extent as stipulate by my contract and assuming that the dissaster isn’t bad enough to destroy me and all those covered by the insurance as whole as the financial infrastructure that will pay this insurance. It also assumes that the financial infrastructure that will pay the insurance (and any supporting private and public backup bodies) will be around if the earthquake does occur.
So, scenario plan for the future, be prudent and follow sound strategies but don’t believe for a minute that human beings can predict the long term future, and certainly don’t dish you money out!
Copied from my Vox Site.